Anyone who has worked in estate agency through a falling market knows the pattern. Buyers watch prices drift down while their conveyancing drags on, and by week ten they’re asking themselves if they’ve overpaid. A low valuation lands, the renegotiation call comes in, and sometimes the buyer stops answering the phone altogether.
I’ve been in estate agency since 1987 and I’ve worked through a few of these. A falling market brings its own kind of pain.
Bryan Mansell
CEO, Gazeal
Average UK house prices are forecast to fall 1.5% in 2027, with no sustained recovery before the second half of 2028. London, the South East and the East of England face a 3.5% fall next year. In those markets an agreed sale carries more risk than it did twelve months ago. With fewer transactions to go round, each one that collapses costs your vendor months and costs you a commission you’d already pencilled in.
Two things hold a sale together in this market
01
A Gazeal reservation agreement
Commits buyer and seller at the point of offer. If either walks away without a good reason, the other side receives compensation. Gazundering becomes expensive for the buyer who tries it.
02
A Gazeal Home Insights Surve
Puts the condition of the property on the table before the first viewing. Last month a survey picked up a timber frame the agent hadn't spotted at valuation. The seller adjusted the price before listing, and a buyer paid the full asking price within a day with their lender already on board. Nothing was left for anyone to renegotiate.
The market is harder than it was, and some of the damage won’t unwind quickly. That’s the best reason to protect the sales you already have.
| Source: | What to know |
|---|---|
| Savills | Average UK house prices to fall 1.5% in 2027, after a broadly flat 2026 |
| Savills | London, the South East and the East of England to fall 3.5% next year |
| Savills | No sustained recovery before the second half of 2028 |
| Savills | Mortgage rates not expected below 5% until early 2028 |
| Moneyfacts | Average two-year fixed rate up from 4.83% in January to 5.97% in November |
| Moneyfacts | On a £250,000 mortgage over 25 years, that adds £169 a month, or £2,028 a year |
Why waiting for the recovery doesn’t help
The forecasts above keep mortgage rates over 5% until early 2028, with Bank Rate rising to 4.25% by the end of 2027 before it falls. A sale agreed today has to survive that whole stretch.
A sale gets through that stretch on the terms buyer and seller agree on the day the offer is accepted.
Who’s buying right now
First-time buyers are set to lead the recovery, with deposit affordability at its strongest since 2008. Home movers are holding back until borrowing costs fall.
That matters in a chain. A first-time buyer with a good deposit may be ready, but if the seller above them is waiting on a buyer who has gone cold, the whole chain slows.
The recovery will come
Prices are forecast to rise 15.8% over the five years to 2031, with first-time buyers leading the way. The agents who keep their sales together through 2027 will be in the strongest position when it arrives.
Get your branch set up before the new year
Add Gazeal reservation agreements and Home Insights Surveys to your branch. Buyer and seller both commit at the point of offer, and the survey gets condition questions answered before anyone can use them to renegotiate.
Set Up My Branch
